Case fatality risk of the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.1.7

Working on behalf of NHS England, this paper uses the OpenSAFELY platform to estimate the risk of death following confirmation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England, comparing infection with VOC to non-VOC, after accounting for demographic factors and comorbidities

Eurosurveillance, 2021

Paper information

Grint Daniel J, Wing Kevin, Williamson Elizabeth, McDonald Helen I, Bhaskaran Krishnan, Evans David, Evans Stephen JW, Walker Alex J, Hickman George, Nightingale Emily, Schultze Anna, Rentsch Christopher T, Bates Chris, Cockburn Jonathan, Curtis Helen J, Morton Caroline E, Bacon Sebastian, Davy Simon, Wong Angel YS, Mehrkar Amir, Tomlinson Laurie, Douglas Ian J, Mathur Rohini, Blomquist Paula, MacKenna Brian, Ingelsby Peter, Croker Richard, Parry John, Hester Frank, Harper Sam, DeVito Nicholas J, Hulme Will, Tazare John, Goldacre Ben, Smeeth Liam, Eggo Rosalind M. Case fatality risk of the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.1.7 in England, 16 November to 5 February. Euro Surveill. 2021;26(11):pii=2100256.


The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant of concern (VOC) is increasing in prevalence across Europe. Accurate estimation of disease severity associated with this VOC is critical for pandemic planning. We found increased risk of death for VOC compared with non-VOC cases in England (hazard ratio: 1.67; 95% confidence interval: 1.34–2.09; p < 0.0001). Absolute risk of death by 28 days increased with age and comorbidities. This VOC has potential to spread faster with higher mortality than the pandemic to date.